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6 min read Jan 5, 2026

Scarcity Premiums: The State of Oregon's UGB in 2025

SC
Stuart Chapin
Principal Broker & Land Analyst

In Oregon, land is not just dirt; it is a restricted commodity. The Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) acts as a high-pressure valve, concentrating value inside while keeping outside acreage in a state of regulatory suspension.

The Scarcity Trap

As we enter 2026, the inventory of buildable residential land within the Willamette Valley's primary UGBs has reached a critical low. This has created a "scarcity premium"—where the value of a parcel is driven less by its size and more by its proximity to the boundary and its readiness for infrastructure.

Technical Insight:

The most valuable land in 2025 isn't just "inside" the UGB; it's the land that can be serviced without a lift station. Gravity-fed sewer access is currently the primary determinant of "Bespoke Yield" for Valley developers.

Boundary Pressure & Legislative Relief

Recent legislative shifts at the state level (SB 1537) are allowing for limited, high-priority expansions for housing. This creates a specific "Alpha Channel" for landowners sitting on the edge of the boundary.

Value Surge

Parcels matching expansion criteria are seeing 15-22% valuation increases YoY.

Regulatory Risk

EFU and Forest Land protections remain steep; HBU audits are mandatory for success.

Understanding where your land sits in this complex matrix is the difference between selling for "acreage prices" and "development prices." At Stake & Charter, we specialize in chartering that course.

Map Your UGB Potential

We run high-resolution GIS analysis to determine exactly how close your land is to the next expansion cycle.

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